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Writer's pictureMatthew Gilpin

Future Themes & Grey Swans: The Next 25 Years

Looking to the Future

Where will we be in 25 years? Here are some personal futurist predictions to get the ball rolling.


First, a note: In the article below I discuss a few personal thoughts on trends in technology and society we need to think about. I've had some interesting conversations on these topics in the last few days. To be clear about a few things:


  • I certainly don't necessarily want these things to happen or celebrate all these predictions. Some are positive developments, some are very negative - if they come to pass.

  • Nor, thankfully, do I believe they are all inevitable.

  • Hopefully, therefore, we can find solutions to, and head off, some of the worst problems.


Recent history teaches us that things always change in unexpected ways - which is why I think a discussion on Black and Grey Swans is valuable (and goes way beyond the sensationalist sci-fi/disaster movie scenarios I mention). We will return to this topic in future thought pieces.

Robotic production
Post-scarcity society

1. Abundance & Poverty: Artificial intelligence, robotics, additive manufacturing, fusion power, and advanced life sciences imply more and lower cost consumer goods, housing, food, free time and energy. This creates disruption to the global economy and changes the way we live and work. 


There is no guarantee greater happiness will result, although there is an opportunity to reduce the numbers of people living in abject poverty. Who will slip through the net? Human history has rarely been utopian for long.


The very concepts of wealth, property and poverty change. The rich will always get richer, the question is whether the poor (meaning the other 99%) will get poorer in absolute or just relative terms.


Where will true value lie? Consider things that have a natural limit to supply in this new world: Land, Privacy, (Human) Art and Artisan Crafts, Gold?


Surgeons are assisted by a robot to perform an operation
Robotic medecine

2. Health: These technological advances mean most people should be able to stay healthier for longer, but the rich will begin to live a lot longer. Advances in immunotherapy, metabolic science, synthetic organs, cybernetics and genetics (and epigenetics) will mean many diseases will be curable, even old age. 


Many of these treatments will become available to all, some will only be for the few. As life expectancy differences between the very rich and the rest become impossible to ignore, we see problems…


A high-tech trading floor of a bank
Future finance

3. Wealth: Since it is the asset-rich who tend to understand and benefit from the power of compounding value this further increases inequalities. $1m compounding at 7.5% over 100 years = $1.4 billion. 


What does that mean for the future of money? Taxes? Caution: the arrival of the “abundance singularity” will disrupt as many industries as it helps.


visualisation of sub-atomic quantum waves
The nature of reality

4. Science: We will have a much better understanding of the nature of reality, but most of us will be no wiser. Whether the Standard Model survives (unlikely) or is replaced by a new theory as the deepest level of reality, there is still a lot to discover. 


A fundamental breakthrough unifying quantum mechanics and Einsteinian relativity, explaining dark matter and energy would certainly bring massive change…


Computer analysis of a rain forest
Technology fights environmental damage

5. Climate Change: Will always be with us as a natural process, but the current millenarian fears focusing on anthropogenic global warming will abate as new science leads to new technological solutions to mitigate the effects of change - but then our focus of concern will inevitably move to something else. What will that be?


a computer logs all activity in a view of a city street
The end of privacy

6. Privacy: Will be unknown for most people. Direct social, economic and political control of the individual will increase. Democracy as we conceive it comes under further strain, leading to:


A high tech war room
The future of war

7. Wars: Major global fault lines show no signs of easing: China, Russia, Middle East, other religious conflicts, mass migration. While abundance might mitigate some traditional reasons for war, many remain, and others will no doubt arise – this is human nature. 


We can expect conflicts to employ unpleasant new weapons and techniques including biological/genetic, nanotech and hypersonic weapons. Nuclear proliferation has not been stopped. 


And, finally, never forget:


a black swan floating on a lake looks back
Black Swans

8. Black (and Grey) Swans: We cannot guess what Black Swans may arise – that is the nature of unknown unknowns.


There are plenty of Grey Swans we can guess at however – normally the theme of sci fi and disaster movies - highly unlikely with severe potential impact: Asteroid collision, a.i. takeover, civilisational collapse, alien invasion, massive sudden climate change, deadly pandemics, solar storms, new ice age – none can be ruled out. 


Looking back to my childhood in the 70s, we could all feel cellphones, the internet and portable computers were coming, no-one predicted facebook (feel free to prove me wrong).


Over the coming weeks, I will pick on selected topics to discuss in a bit more depth and give some background and sources to my thinking. We might need to touch on some philosophical rather than scientific themes:


  • What is the meaning of life in every sense?

  • What do we want from the future as individuals and as a society?

  • How should we live now?


If you would like to join the conversation, please do comment below.


Matthew Gilpin



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